Canada went from the immigration darling to supervillain over a span of just a few months. Government of Canada (GoC) IRCC data for December shows a drop in permanent resident applications. It follows a weak end to the year that saw much weaker growth than many had anticipated. The drop wasn’t exclusive to countries Canada has recently experienced tensions with either, but it appears to be a broad decline as the opportunities Canada offers go under the microscope.
Canadian Permanent Resident Applications Drop 73%
Canadian applications for permanent residency have suddenly cratered. The IRCC saw a drop of 73% to just 16.4k applications in December. It was the third consecutive month to report an annual drop, with less extreme declines observed in November (-30%) and October (-25%). September (+6%) also managed to log very weak growth considering Canada’s targets and the growth that preceded.
Shift In Applications Was Very Abrupt
Looking at annual growth highlights how abrupt the change in direction was over the past year. Canada managed to still grow by 10% to 317.4k permanent resident applications in 2023. However, it was expected to be a much larger year with year-over-year monthly growth surging as high as 96% in May.
Canadian Permanent Resident Applications Are Slowing
The 12-month change for permanent resident applications Canada has received.
Source: IRCC; Better Dwelling.
Between January and August of last year, applications were a whopping 50% higher than the previous year. Over just four months, the drag was substantial enough to drop that rate by 40 points. If this momentum continues into the current year, the country may see a rare annual decline.
Rising Tensions Aren’t The Only Reason Immigrants Aren’t Coming
Canada’s eroding relationships with key sources of immigrants is certainly contributing to the issue. The largest source of permanent resident applications remains India, though applications declined 62% in December. It was followed by Nigeria (-32%), and China (-81%) to round out the top three. However, it’s important to note the decline wasn’t just those countries.
The GoC saw declines in applications from all but six countries in December. The largest of those six being Kyrgyzstan, the source of a whopping 9 applications. With such few growth areas, the decline in applications is much more complicated than just rising tensions between Canada, China, and India.
As previously discussed, immigration experienced a hiccup as far back as May. This is when the living conditions international students experienced became magnified in the public, after it was revealed dozens of students were the victims of scams.
Study permits aren’t directly related to permanent resident applications. Though such a large public issue likely prompted potential immigrants to closely examine the conditions they’re moving into.
