Canada may have record population growth but what happens if immigrants see the mass exodus of citizens? Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows Q3 2023 emigration, or reverse immigration, surged to an unusually high level. Canadians fled the country for a new home in such a large number, a 3 month outflow has only been larger 3 times in the past century. Yikes.
Canada Sees 4th Largest Outflow of Residents In The Past 73 Years
Canada is losing more and more residents to foreign countries. The latest data shows emigration rose 3% higher to 32,026 people in Q3 2023. That number is astronomical, and hard to appreciate just on its own. Over the past 73 years of data only three years have seen larger quarters—2016, 1967, and 1965.
Canadian Emigration Has Been Accelerating
The quarterly outflow of Canadians emigrants—those leaving the country to immigrate elsewhere.
Source: Statistics Canada; Better Dwelling.
The above chart also really highlights this is a recent trend. Starting with the record high exodus in Q3 2016, higher emigration is normalized. Quarterly outflows are roughly 50% higher from that point forward. It’s a recent trend, but important to note this isn’t exclusive to post-pandemic Canada.
Canadians Are Fleeing At An Unusually Rapid Rate
Canada is set to have a banger of a year when it comes to resident outflows. There were 74,017 emigrants year to date (YTD), already hitting 79% of the total last year. The final quarter of 2023 can come in lower than the previous two years and still print one of the biggest years ever for outflows.
Canada’s outflows have largely been ignored since record population growth obfuscates it. Most policymakers would point to the net increase as reason to ignore the issue. However, this dismisses an important point that is beginning to surface—if the people most familiar with a country don’t see opportunity, how long can it attract immigrants?
In short, Canada is being run like a dodgy, fly-by-night credit card company. Its operators don’t really care about losing clients, as long as the inflow of new ones outpaces the old ones. At a certain point though, a reputation develops and turns into a warning for new clients. Canada may have reached that point, with study permit applications declining sharply, indicating future population growth won’t be so robust.
When a dodgy financial company hits this point, it’s time to shut down and start again. Unfortunately, that’s not really an option for a country. The OECD’s dreary outlook for the country’s per capita output trailing virtually all other advanced economies, is starting to look like the optimistic scenario.
